S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales expected to post modest gains in July
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) forecasts U.S. auto sales to show modest gains in July 2025, with an expected volume of 1.33 million units, representing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units. This marks an improvement from the May-June average of 15.5 million units.
The anticipated sales increase is primarily driven by a surge in battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchases ahead of federal EV incentives expiring on September 30th. BEV market share is projected to exceed 9% in July, up from the 7.3% year-to-date average through May 2025. However, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the upcoming expiration of federal incentives could create headwinds for long-term BEV growth.
[ "Expected increase in July auto sales to 15.9 million SAAR from 15.5 million May-June average", "BEV market share projected to reach over 9%, up from 7.3% YTD average", "Pull-ahead demand for EVs expected to boost overall vehicle sales through Q3" ]S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) prevede un modesto aumento delle vendite di auto negli Stati Uniti a luglio 2025, con un volume stimato di 1,33 milioni di unit脿, corrispondente a un tasso annuo destagionalizzato (SAAR) di 15,9 milioni di unit脿. Questo rappresenta un miglioramento rispetto alla media di 15,5 milioni di unit脿 registrata tra maggio e giugno.
L'incremento previsto nelle vendite 猫 principalmente dovuto a un'impennata negli acquisti di veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) in vista della scadenza degli incentivi federali per i veicoli elettrici, fissata al 30 settembre. La quota di mercato dei BEV dovrebbe superare il 9% a luglio, in crescita rispetto alla media del 7,3% registrata dall'inizio dell'anno fino a maggio 2025. Tuttavia, l'One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) e la prossima scadenza degli incentivi federali potrebbero rappresentare ostacoli per la crescita a lungo termine dei BEV.
- Aumento previsto delle vendite di auto a luglio a 15,9 milioni SAAR rispetto alla media di 15,5 milioni tra maggio e giugno
- Quota di mercato dei BEV prevista oltre il 9%, in aumento rispetto alla media del 7,3% da inizio anno
- Domanda anticipata di veicoli elettrici che dovrebbe sostenere le vendite complessive di veicoli fino al terzo trimestre
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) pronostica un modesto aumento en las ventas de autos en Estados Unidos para julio de 2025, con un volumen esperado de 1.33 millones de unidades, lo que representa una tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente (SAAR) de 15.9 millones de unidades. Esto marca una mejora respecto al promedio de 15.5 millones de unidades registrado entre mayo y junio.
El aumento anticipado en las ventas se debe principalmente a un repunte en las compras de veh铆culos el茅ctricos a bater铆a (BEV) antes de que expiren los incentivos federales para veh铆culos el茅ctricos el 30 de septiembre. Se proyecta que la cuota de mercado de BEV supere el 9% en julio, frente al promedio del 7.3% acumulado hasta mayo de 2025. Sin embargo, la Ley One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) y la pr贸xima expiraci贸n de los incentivos federales podr铆an generar obst谩culos para el crecimiento a largo plazo de los BEV.
- Aumento esperado en las ventas de autos en julio a 15.9 millones SAAR desde un promedio de 15.5 millones en mayo-junio
- Cuota de mercado de BEV proyectada para superar el 9%, aumentando desde un promedio acumulado del 7.3%
- La demanda anticipada de veh铆culos el茅ctricos se espera que impulse las ventas totales de veh铆culos hasta el tercer trimestre
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S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) pr茅voit une l茅g猫re augmentation des ventes automobiles aux 脡tats-Unis en juillet 2025, avec un volume attendu de 1,33 million d'unit茅s, repr茅sentant un taux annuel ajust茅 des variations saisonni猫res (SAAR) de 15,9 millions d'unit茅s. Cela marque une am茅lioration par rapport 脿 la moyenne de 15,5 millions d'unit茅s enregistr茅e entre mai et juin.
Cette hausse anticip茅e des ventes est principalement due 脿 une forte augmentation des achats de v茅hicules 茅lectriques 脿 batterie (BEV) avant l'expiration des incitations f茅d茅rales pour les v茅hicules 茅lectriques pr茅vue le 30 septembre. La part de march茅 des BEV devrait d茅passer 9% en juillet, contre une moyenne de 7,3% depuis le d茅but de l'ann茅e jusqu'en mai 2025. Toutefois, la loi One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) et la prochaine expiration des incitations f茅d茅rales pourraient freiner la croissance 脿 long terme des BEV.
- Augmentation pr茅vue des ventes automobiles en juillet 脿 15,9 millions SAAR contre une moyenne de 15,5 millions en mai-juin
- Part de march茅 des BEV projet茅e 脿 plus de 9%, contre une moyenne cumul茅e de 7,3%
- La demande anticip茅e de v茅hicules 茅lectriques devrait stimuler les ventes globales de v茅hicules jusqu'au troisi猫me trimestre
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) prognostiziert f眉r Juli 2025 einen moderaten Anstieg der US-Autoverk盲ufe auf ein erwartetes Volumen von 1,33 Millionen Einheiten, was einer saisonal bereinigten Jahresrate (SAAR) von 15,9 Millionen Einheiten entspricht. Dies stellt eine Verbesserung gegen眉ber dem Durchschnitt von 15,5 Millionen Einheiten im Mai-Juni dar.
Der erwartete Verkaufsanstieg wird haupts盲chlich durch einen Anstieg der K盲ufe von Batterie-Elektrofahrzeugen (BEV) getrieben, da die bundesstaatlichen EV-Anreize am 30. September auslaufen. Der BEV-Marktanteil wird voraussichtlich im Juli 眉ber 9% liegen, verglichen mit dem bisher im Jahr 2025 bis Mai erreichten Durchschnitt von 7,3%. Allerdings k枚nnten das One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) und das bevorstehende Auslaufen der Bundesanreize langfristige Wachstumshemmnisse f眉r BEV darstellen.
- Erwarteter Anstieg der Autoverk盲ufe im Juli auf 15,9 Millionen SAAR gegen眉ber 15,5 Millionen im Mai-Juni-Durchschnitt
- BEV-Marktanteil wird voraussichtlich 眉ber 9% steigen, gegen眉ber 7,3% im bisherigen Jahresdurchschnitt
- Vorgezogene Nachfrage nach E-Fahrzeugen wird voraussichtlich die Gesamtfahrzeugverk盲ufe bis zum dritten Quartal ankurbeln
- None.
- Persistent affordability concerns in the auto market
- Expected significant decline in BEV sales after federal EV incentives expire in September
- Increasing uncertainty in long-term BEV demand growth due to OBBBA policy implications
Insights
S&P Global forecasts mild July auto sales growth driven by BEV purchases ahead of federal incentive expiration, signaling short-term industry boost.
S&P Global Mobility projects a modest improvement in July's auto sales with 1.33 million light vehicles sold, translating to a
The data reveals an interesting dynamic: we're witnessing the beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025, this time specifically in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Consumers are accelerating purchases ahead of the September 30th federal EV incentive expiration - a critical deadline driving current market behavior.
The projected BEV share for July of over
The sales breakdown shows light trucks continuing to dominate the market at 13.1 million SAAR versus just 2.8 million for passenger cars. This truck-heavy mix persists despite growing EV interest.
A particularly noteworthy aspect is the mention of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its potential to further disrupt BEV adoption patterns. This suggests significant regulatory uncertainty affecting long-term EV market projections, with market share volatility expected to intensify in coming months.
These projections from S&P Global Mobility provide valuable forward-looking indicators for the auto industry while highlighting the artificial market distortions created by policy deadlines rather than organic demand growth.
New light vehicle sales in July are expected to be up slightly, supported by the next pull-ahead wave, this time for electric vehicles
"Overall, auto demand in July is expected to remain modest, as affordability concerns remain entrenched. 聽The pace of sales is expected to improve compared to the previous two months as the market digests the likely beginning of a second wave of pull-ahead demand in 2025. This time sales will be buoyed by a run up in battery electric vehicle (BEV) in advance of the September 30th expiration of federal EV incentives," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While the expiration of federal EV incentives will create longer-term headwinds for BEV growth, price-conscious consumers looking to take advantage of the savings are likely to do so before the end of the third quarter, helping to push overall new vehicle volumes, although to a lesser degree than realized back in March and April."
July 25 (Est) | Jun 25 | July 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,325,200 | 1,254,418 | 1,285,711 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.9 | 15.3 | 15.8 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.1 | 12.8 | 12.9 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle sales remains increasingly uncertain. The auto policy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term BEV demand growth. In the immediate term, even more month-to-month BEV sales and market share volatility is anticipated, as EV share mix from July-September is expected to advance, followed by much lower take rates in the fourth quarter of 2025. 聽BEV share of sales in July is expected to reach over
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