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FTI Consulting Report: An Endgame for the Epic E-Commerce Era Is Within Sight

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FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) released its 2025 U.S. Online Retail Report, projecting e-commerce sales to reach $1.27 trillion in 2025, an 8.5% year-over-year increase. The report indicates that e-commerce market share will hit 23.5% in 2025, up from 22.7% in 2024, but suggests a potential plateau near 30% by 2030.

The analysis reveals that total retail sales from 2020-2024 exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion, though 40% of this growth was due to inflation. Online retail sales surpassed pre-COVID projections by $932 billion. The report also highlights a shift in direct-to-customer (DTC) strategies, with brands increasingly embracing retail partnerships and omnichannel approaches to meet evolving consumer preferences.

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) ha pubblicato il suo Rapporto sul Commercio Online USA 2025, prevedendo che le vendite e-commerce raggiungeranno 1,27 trilioni di dollari nel 2025, con un aumento dell'8,5% rispetto all'anno precedente. Il rapporto indica che la quota di mercato dell'e-commerce arriverà al 23,5% nel 2025, in crescita rispetto al 22,7% del 2024, ma suggerisce un possibile plateau vicino al 30% entro il 2030.

L'analisi mostra che le vendite retail totali dal 2020 al 2024 hanno superato le aspettative pre-COVID di 2,4 trilioni di dollari, anche se il 40% di questa crescita è attribuibile all'inflazione. Le vendite retail online hanno superato le previsioni pre-COVID di 932 miliardi di dollari. Il rapporto evidenzia inoltre un cambiamento nelle strategie direct-to-customer (DTC), con i brand che adottano sempre più partnership retail e approcci omnicanale per rispondere alle preferenze dei consumatori in evoluzione.

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) publicó su Informe sobre el Comercio Electrónico en EE.UU. para 2025, proyectando que las ventas de comercio electrónico alcanzarán los 1,27 billones de dólares en 2025, un aumento interanual del 8,5%. El informe indica que la cuota de mercado del comercio electrónico llegará al 23,5% en 2025, frente al 22,7% en 2024, aunque sugiere una posible estabilización cerca del 30% para 2030.

El análisis revela que las ventas minoristas totales entre 2020 y 2024 superaron las expectativas previas al COVID en 2,4 billones de dólares, aunque el 40% de este crecimiento se debió a la inflación. Las ventas minoristas en línea superaron las proyecciones previas al COVID en 932 mil millones de dólares. El informe también destaca un cambio en las estrategias directas al consumidor (DTC), con marcas que adoptan cada vez más asociaciones minoristas y enfoques omnicanal para satisfacer las preferencias cambiantes de los consumidores.

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN)은 2025� 미국 온라� 소매 보고서를 발표하며 전자상거� 매출� 2025� 1.27� 달러� 이를 것으� 전망했으�, 전년 대� 8.5% 증가� 것으� 예상했습니다. 보고서에 따르� 전자상거� 시장 점유율은 2024� 22.7%에서 2025� 23.5%� 상승하지�, 2030년경에는 � 30%에서 정체� 가능성� 있다� 합니�.

분석� 따르� 2020년부� 2024년까지 � 소매 매출은 코로� 이전 예상보다 2.4� 달러� 초과했으�, � � 40%� 인플레이션에 기인합니�. 온라� 소매 매출은 코로� 이전 예상보다 9,320� 달러� 초과했습니다. 보고서는 또한 직접 고객 대�(DTC) 전략� 변화를 강조하며, 브랜드들� 변화하� 소비� 선호� 대응하� 위해 소매 파트너십� 옴니채널 방식� 점점 � 많이 채택하고 있다� 전합니다.

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) a publié son rapport sur le commerce en ligne aux États-Unis pour 2025, prévoyant que les ventes e-commerce atteindront 1,27 trillion de dollars en 2025, soit une augmentation de 8,5 % par rapport à l'année précédente. Le rapport indique que la part de marché du commerce électronique atteindra 23,5 % en 2025, contre 22,7 % en 2024, mais suggère un possible plateau autour de 30 % d'ici 2030.

L'analyse révèle que les ventes totales au détail de 2020 à 2024 ont dépassé les prévisions d'avant COVID de 2,4 trillions de dollars, bien que 40 % de cette croissance soit due à l'inflation. Les ventes au détail en ligne ont dépassé les projections pré-COVID de 932 milliards de dollars. Le rapport met également en lumière un changement dans les stratégies direct-to-customer (DTC), les marques adoptant de plus en plus des partenariats avec des détaillants et des approches omnicanales pour répondre aux préférences changeantes des consommateurs.

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) veröffentlichte seinen Bericht zum US-Online-Einzelhandel 2025 und prognostiziert, dass der E-Commerce-Umsatz im Jahr 2025 1,27 Billionen US-Dollar erreichen wird, was einem Anstieg von 8,5 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Der Bericht zeigt, dass der Marktanteil des E-Commerce im Jahr 2025 23,5 % erreichen wird, gegenüber 22,7 % im Jahr 2024, jedoch wird eine mögliche Sättigung nahe 30 % bis 2030 erwartet.

Die Analyse zeigt, dass die gesamten Einzelhandelsumsätze von 2020 bis 2024 die Erwartungen vor COVID um 2,4 Billionen US-Dollar übertroffen haben, wobei 40 % dieses Wachstums auf Inflation zurückzuführen sind. Die Online-Einzelhandelsumsätze übertrafen die Prognosen vor COVID um 932 Milliarden US-Dollar. Der Bericht hebt außerdem eine Veränderung bei Direct-to-Customer (DTC)-Strategien hervor, wobei Marken zunehmend Einzelhandelspartnerschaften und Omnichannel-Ansätze nutzen, um den sich wandelnden Verbraucherpräferenzen gerecht zu werden.

Positive
  • E-commerce sales projected to grow 8.5% to $1.27 trillion in 2025
  • Online retail market share expected to increase to 23.5% in 2025 from 22.7% in 2024
  • Total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion from 2020-2024
  • Online retail sales surpassed pre-COVID projections by $932 billion
Negative
  • E-commerce market share growth is decelerating, expected to plateau near 30% by 2030
  • 40% of retail sales growth attributed to inflation rather than real growth
  • Inflation-adjusted sales growth has been marginal or negative since 2023
  • Discretionary spending cooling due to tariff concerns, cautionary jobs market, and geopolitical uncertainty

WASHINGTON, July 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: FCN) today announced the release of its which projects e-commerce sales will hit $1.27 trillion in 2025, an 8.5% increase over last year. Despite the positive projection, the report found that online retail market share may be approaching a ceiling by the end of the decade, as consumers look for e-commerce to be increasingly integrated with all their retail experiences.

The firm’s  practice, which conducted the analysis for the report, expects e-commerce will account for 23.5% of U.S. retail market share in 2025, up slightly from 22.7% in 2024 and 21.6% in 2023, while the online channel’s share gains are expected to decelerate further and approach a plateau near 30% by 2030.

Taking a closer look, total retail sales from 2020-2024 rose a combined $2.4 trillion above pre-COVID expectations, but that number may be misleading, with 40% of that growth attributable to inflation. Similarly, online retail sales from 2020-2024 were $932 billion above pre-COVID expectations, as the “pull forward� effect during the COVID period altered shopping patterns and accelerated share gains for the online channel that have since slowed notably.

“While consumers have continued to increase their spending, inflation-adjusted sales growth has been marginal or negative since 2023 as the retail sector struggles to generate real sales growth,� said , a Senior Managing Director, and U.S. Leader of FTI Consulting’s Retail & Consumer Products industry and Business Transformation practices. “While inflation is trending lower, discretionary spending is cooling amid tariff concerns, a cautionary jobs market and geopolitical uncertainty. These dynamics are weighing on consumers� minds, and prospects for their spending appetite in the second half of the year are subdued.�

The report also highlights how brands are adapting, evolving and embracing retail partnerships that they once sought to avoid. Shoppers� excitement around events like Amazon’s Prime Day, and the revenue boost it brings to retailers, is evidence that the old direct-to-customer (“DTC�) models aren’t enough on their own anymore.

“This evolution marks a critical moment for online retail. It’s no longer just about who owns the customer relationship; it’s about who can deliver value across every channel the consumer chooses to shop,� said, , Global Leader of FTI Consulting’s Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment. “The DTC revolution isn’t over. It’s simply evolved. The next wave of winners will be those who invest wisely, scale intentionally and build capabilities that connect the dots across every consumer touchpoint � from livestream to doorstep, and everything in between.�

For more information, read the full report .

About FTI Consulting
FTI Consulting, Inc. is a leading global expert firm for organizations facing crisis and transformation, with more than 8,100 employees located in 33 countries and territories as of March 31, 2025. In certain jurisdictions, FTI Consulting’s services are provided through distinct legal entities that are separately capitalized and independently managed. The Company generated $3.70 billion in revenues during fiscal year 2024. More information can be found at .

FTI Consulting, Inc.
555 12th Street NW
Washington, DC 20004
+1.202.312.9100

Investor Contact:
Mollie Hawkes
+1.617.747.1791

Media Contact:
Nick Emmons
+1.617.510.1676


FAQ

What is FTI Consulting's (FCN) e-commerce sales projection for 2025?

FTI Consulting projects U.S. e-commerce sales to reach $1.27 trillion in 2025, representing an 8.5% increase from the previous year.

What is the expected e-commerce market share in 2025 according to FCN's report?

According to the report, e-commerce will account for 23.5% of U.S. retail market share in 2025, up from 22.7% in 2024.

How much did retail sales exceed pre-COVID expectations from 2020-2024?

Total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion, though 40% of this growth was attributed to inflation.

What is FCN's forecast for e-commerce market share by 2030?

FTI Consulting expects e-commerce market share to approach a plateau near 30% by 2030, indicating a deceleration in growth.

How are direct-to-customer (DTC) business models evolving according to FCN's report?

The report indicates that traditional DTC models are evolving, with brands increasingly embracing retail partnerships and omnichannel approaches to meet consumer preferences.
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